yup. the axis, if they had defeated the allies, they would then have collapsed and fought each other
In short no.
Japan didn't have the manpower, merchant shipping capacity or industrial capability to win a war that lasted longer than a year against the combined powers of the Allies and China. It's main military leaders even admitted privately that the only hope Japan had was if the US agreed to terms after their quick advances. If the US decided to continue the war there was no hope. Japan couldn't damage the US industry or it's infrastructure. Nearly every one of it's shipyards, aircraft manufactures and armament factories were all outside Japan's striking range whereas Japan's would be within US range within a year of base construction and technological increases in the war years. Add in Radar, the cracked codes and Japan's commitment to occupying and oppressing the locals in it's conquered territory tying down massive amounts of troops and material in China, Manchuria, Burma, New Guinea, Taiwan and French Indochina all of which had active resistance cells and hostile guerilla forces. Japan would have to continuously win perfect battles against the US for years without losses to maintain their veterans and ships that they couldn't replace, while the US could replace it's material and personnel losses with relative ease. Even if Japan had won a perfect battle at Midway and sunk all US carriers without any losses, then sucessfully captured hawaii and Port Arthur, it couldn't successfully invade Australia, finish off Burma or India, could not garrison China and could not hope to successfully invade the US mainland, all of which it would need to do to win.
To put it in perspective this site( http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm ) has the production output of the US vs Japan. It's absolutely staggering. Japan basically committed suicide when they went to war against the US, UK, and Dutch forces in the Pacific. Ironically Japan could not only have avoided this utterly futile and doomed war with the Allies but profited enormously had they instead gone North and attacked the USSR right after Germany did in 1941. The USSR had suffered terrible losses and was literally on the verge of collapse by October 1941, if japan had invaded through Manchuria the elite Siberian Divisions could not have been sent West and saved Moscow. Japan could very well have been the final straw that broke the Soviet Back in WWII. The Imperial Army was interested in this "Go North" plan, but the Imperial Navy wanted to 'Go South" instead to seize resources in southeast Asia instead seizing the oil and resources they needed from Siberia as this would put nearly all the glory and political power in the Army's hands.
Once they awoke the sleeping giant so to speak japan's only prayer was a negotiated peace, and the US and UK would not negotiate a peace other than unconditional surrender. They were all doomed before their planes even took off from the Fast Strike Force of those six Japanese Carriers that fateful morning in December.
And even if they would have gone north, that would have syphoned the manpower from the chineese front which could have led to it collapsing, leading to the chinese pushing right back up to korea, since even though the chineese industry and army was basicly a joke, the had millions of people to move into the fight. Not to mention that china was in a postponded civil war at the moment between the Communist People's Republic of China and the Koumintang led Republic of China. The key word was the communits. If japan would have declared war to the Soviets they would have got their hands on the chineese manpower. China was already fairing better and better in the war(both the army and the industry) and was already made serious progress against the japanese by 41. It is not out of the realm of impossibility that they could have helped out the soviets to hold out just a bit longer until they finish of japan on the mainland, then most of the combined soviet and chineese troopers could move on the german front with a now competent and veteran Soviet-Chinese force.
All in all, the second world war was lost for the Axis when the USA joined in, but that doesn't mean they(or as a hungarian should I say we?) wouldn't have lost either way.
Not to mention the german way of holding the Asxis together as it was.
Vichy france was a puppet government, They held Hungary and Romania by promising the return of the other half of Transylvania to both if they do what they say(and when hungary tried to get out of the war with Horthy's swing politics they just kidnapped his son and blackmailed us, and set up a puppet government...), Bulgaria was promissed a part of greece and was about the only real ally they had, and italy... well...
They had conflicting interests in the balkans, Italy was struggling in North Afrika and needed german aid, and when it was almost won the declared war on greece, then getting utterly beaten, syphoning away further german forces which delayed operation Barbarossa, which in turn led to the utter failture in the eastern frontlines as soon as the russian winter set in.
Let's face it. Xizer said it me the best in one of our private conversation about HOI.
Hitler must have thought that: "That Mussolini guy is the source of all my problems... Ever since I know him, everything went south." while Mussolini thought: "That Hitler guy is the source of all my problems... Ever since I know him, everything went south."
in answer to yours, it is a yes and no. however, some things could have changed the empire Drastically from what you said.
1. Dave, you mentioned Manpower, however, before all the shenanigans went down, the Japanese had at least 13 divisions plus Manchuko's army sitting on the border or accessable to the soviet front. so they could have seized all the territory they cared about and crushed Soviet response from and Aid.
2. China: the second sino-japanese started because the KMT leader(Chiang-Kai-Ceck(probably butchered that too) decided he was done with Japan nimbling away at his country. So he post-poned/paused the civil war to counter Japan. Had he not done that, it is likely china would have stayed embroiled in internal conflicts with more limited exchanges between Chiang-Kai-Ceck and Hirohito. Japan would have just slowly aligned warlords and nimbled away territory for years if the KMT devoted themselves to beating the CCP
3. truly allying with Germany. If they had allied with Germany earlier and gotten germany and Japanese engineers and Designers together, they would have stould a slightly better chance as the Japanses planes and later ships would be actually worth something, rather than Cardboard targets.
4. less brutality. If the japanese military was actually Competent, the conquered terriotries would have rather enjoyed freedom under a Japanese protector super-state, and, rather than resist, they would have raised more forces and built up resources and industry to fight the allies.
5. more pilots and better pilot rotation. By having Veteran pilots train the later generations and not only be with the one assignment, they would have stood better later on.
6. more centralized military: a big problem of Japan's was that the Navy and army were major rivals. Remove that, and you have a Japn who can make a singular goal, and stay unified with it and execute it
7. more industrialized Homeland and Territories: very important if Japan tries to go to war with anyone. If Japan joins the axis in 1936, then with Germany support they could better industrialize the japanese territories and puppet territories, then they can build more equipment and better use their limited resources
8. use the ethnic Japanese populations in American nations to rise up and create minor axis to divert allied attention temporarily. If you can create uprisings in Peru/Ecuador, a region that had a sizable Japanese population already, and suplied weapons and elite troops and officers, a sizable puppet diversion state could keep the allies pre-occupied for a few months. If established, then it can supply itself with Food, supplies, and even weapons, pilots, ships, and warplanes. Taking advantage of the the 1939 chaos to establish a government in a quick campaign that, once the government was established, wouldn't need to be supplied across the sea.
9. More build-up first: Because the Japanese would need to be able to hold on to their territory if they go after the Allied holdings, more carriers, cruisers, Battleships, destroyers, and transports. A timetable for expansion could look like war on the communists in august 1941, allies late 1942, when the navy is stronger, would benefit the Japanese more.
So, japan takes this plan, and Best Case scenario, it looks like this. For Pre-war events, I only outline what changes:
Japan and Germany sign an Alliance in 1935, and start standardizing designs to have all the strenghts of both nations philosophies. Larger population migration to Peru, Ecuador, the Phillipines, China, and the East Indes.
1936. Shanxi is defeated and incorporated into the Mengkukuo puppet state. Japan grabs a small amount more land in China.
1937. Chiang-Kai-Ceck doen't declare war on Japan, instead throwing more resources into reunifing China
1938. Thailand joins Japan, Japan plans for an eventual war
In Europe 1939, the situation is the same. But, on September 8th, Japan launches a limited official war in Peru and Ecuador, which also go through civil wars as Japanese populations revolt against the neutral governent. With the japanese Carriers taking out startegic targets, and rebels and Japs taking over, the governemnts would have to pulbicly bow to demands. The two nations are combined into Japanses America, a buffer stateish, which is the majorly industralized and turned into Japanese culture
1940. more excersions into China. However, as Chiang-Kai-Ceck warns Japan not to advance and Joins the allies, which are proven to be serious about Honoring defense pacts, japan halts their advance. Mao joins into the Comintern, which consisits of the USSR, Mongolia, Sinkaing(joins Mao 2 months after), Tannu Tuva, and the CCP.
1941
Japan signs non-agression pact with the Soviet Union in February 1941, and builds up with 20 divisions(no major war in china), plus 10 more from Manchukuo and Mengkukuo, plus 3 raised from Korea, and they have the German patent/design equipment, so better than Japanese equipment in our timeline.
Germany Declares war on the Soviet Union June 22nd, followed by Finland(June 23rd), Slovakia(June 23rd), Hungary(June 24th), Romania(June 27th), Bulgaria(July 1st), and Italy(July 1st). Eastern front follows the same pattern as before
Japan has 5 more divisions on the soviet front by August 15th, when they declare war. 38 Divisions attack the CCP, Mongolia, and the Soviet Union, easily taking the Soviet Far East, Eastern CCP, and eastern Mongolia. Chiang-Kai-Ceck gains against the communist as they have more pressure put on them.
By November 1941, the Germans are in the same place as our Timeline, but Russia has also lost the Far east, Eastern china, and 35% of Mongolia territory and 75% of Mongolia's army. The Tannu Tuvan army is 90% gone, as the Soviets, with only 4 remaining divisions and no airforce in the east, have had to rely on it's puppets forces to resist the Japanese, and the Chinese warlords(aside from Mao hiding in Far western China) have been defeated, or almost defeated.
1942 goes similar in Europe, but not in Asia. With no ocean spanning major war, the Japanese continue to build up forces and industrialize their territory. But japan stirs up the Hornet's nest on December 6th
apposing forces in the Pacific in Late 1942
Current Number(under construction/training)USA build figures are for united fleet. For Aircraft, it's production per month
Japan USA UK China Other allies Total allied
Battleships 12(+5) 10(+8) 3(+1) 0(+1) 2(+1) 15(+11)
CVs 6(+8) 4(+10) 0(+2) 0(0) 0(0) 4(+12)
CVLs 6(+2) 0(0) 1(+1) 0(+1) 0(0) 1(+2)
CVEs 5(+5) 3(+4) 1(+1) 1(+1) 0(0) 5(+6)
H. Cruisers 24(+4) 9(+15) 4(+2) 1(+1) 6(+1) 20(+18)
L.Cruisers 27(+8) 10(+9) 5(+6) 2(+6) 8(+2) 25(+23)
Destroyers 160(+17) 84(+125) 25(+10) 21(+8) 25(+9) 155(+154)
Submarines 85(+65) 65(+58) 12(+9) 12(+10) 8(+3) 97(+80)
Aircraft 4.5K(500) 1.5k(440) 300(250) 600(190) 200(75) 2.6k(935)
Divisions 30(+35 vs.C) 7 6 90 8 111
so, at the Start, Japan is out-matched, but the initial tide is in their Favor. At Pearl Harbor, the allied Naval capital of the Pacific, the Carrier fleet takes out USS
Lexington, 8 Battleships, 2 Escort Carriers, 7 cruisers, 17 destroyers/Submarines/support ships, 450 aircraft, and destroyer the American Fuel dumps and Sub pens. Even with the Pacific fleet Mauled, it is only a small number of Japanese starting victories like in out timeline, which take out the British capital ships, 60 additional allied ships, 585 planes, and 9 divisions in 3 months after pearl harbor, and that doesn't include China, which the japanese push back a large distance in the sneak attack.
By March 1943, The Axis are at a High point. The Germans have seized Stalingrad and the caucasus oil fields(in this timeline, the soviets never have the troops to retak Stalingrad as their also fighting the japanese), the allies have been hamstringed in the Pacific, the minor Comintern powers are on the verge of Collapse, with UlaanBaater under seige, North africa, because of later america support, is firmly in Italy's control. And the allies want vengeance on Japan, as the america war machine ramps up.
With more German Success, allied Pacific strategy at the beginning in Containment, not annihilation of Japan, while they attack the Germans. The Americans larger carrier fleet clashs with Japan 3 time in May, June, and August, which destroyes 3 American CVs and damages 3 more, forcing them to the west coast, as Pearl Harbor is out of commission until october, when the installations are fixed. Japan, on the other hand, loses 2 CVLs and 2 CVs, with 2 more damaged. By August, however, the Chinese fleet has been completely destroyed as japn's superior ships destroyed them in the south china sea in late March. However, because of the Americans, the Japanese failed to take Guadacanal fully by 1944, but do take New Guinea in addition to every american holdong west of midway, and all of the Indes, Burma, China coast, Mongolia, Malaysia, and are digging in.
while this is a very optimistic scenario for Japan, as I can't think anymore, what, with this situation would have happened eventaully; Peru and the Pacific in Japan's Hands, a weaker USSR, a stronger, more powerful European axis, a Divided China, and a Japan that is Better organized, equiped, Trained, and Industrialized then in our timeline?
Topic: Could Japan have won the pacific war? (Read 14938 times)