Brexit

[Slornie]

Missed the early part of this thread due to being on holiday in Scotland, but have been following the laughable (and lamentable) collapse in leadership of both or major parties and the infighting and backtracking from the principal Leave politicians.  The main thing I want to know is when someone is going to demand Farage disband UKIP since now we've voted to leave the EU it's raison d'être has evaporated!

But i also want to point out that the people who voted remain are not looking at the bigger picture
A. Nothing is going to happen for 2 - 4 years

That's an unknown but unlikely to be 4 years.  The EU won't negotiate terms until we invoke Article 50 and once we do we've only got two years to negotiate our exit (I think it's highly unlikely that all 27 remaining EU countries would agree to an extension of the negotiation period).  Although we can choose when to invoke Article 50 there are quite strong clamours for it to be sooner rather than later, both from European neighbours and from members of the Leave team (including Farage), and prolonging the uncertainty is hardly in our best interests anyway.

B. We will get trading with other country's less with people in the EU but more with country's outside the EU.

We won't "get" trading with other countries just because we leave the EU.  We already trade with those countries and there is no reason to believe that leaving the EU will increase our trade with ROW.  In fact, leaving the EU will initially probably result in a reduction in trade with parts of ROW because the moment we complete our EU exit we lose access to all of the existing trade agreements which we currently benefit from as part of the EU - agreements which we are unlikely to be able to negotiate replacements for before exit (particularly since our civil service has been pared down in that area for decades and now lacks severely both in numbers and experience).

Also approximately 80% of our economy is in services, which generally have much higher non-tariff barriers to trade than goods.  Even within the EU the single market has only been partially opened up in the services industry (with Britain a leading proponent towards completion).  Leaving the EU means growth in that huge portion of our economy is likely to be severely stymied.

C. We are not keeping our borders completely shut because we left the EU we've only made it harder to get in, also just because of will be harder to get in doesn't mean no one will come just look at USA and Australia.

What really undermines the entire immigration argument for Leave is that, even with the existing rules, the number of non-EU migrants last year (2015) alone was almost twice the governments overall target for net migration.  If the government can't meet it's ultimate goal even for the element of migration it already has control over why would anyone be deluded enough to believe that leaving the EU will make any difference?

[kucsidave]

Slornie sees the bigger picture. Thank you

[Lord Xizer]

I'll post a video on this subject later today.

[Caesars_Legion]

I will need to read through all of this, which I won't be able to do at the moment. In the mean time, I will just leave this youtube link here.

[Lord Xizer]

[Pali]

Can't watch, can't stand anime.

[Helix345]

I watched it, and it was funny.

[kucsidave]

BTW: Why do I have the feeling that the politicians "supported" to quit the EU in Britain only wanted to earn the vote of the big chunk who wanted to quit? I think they never realized they would really actually quit.

[derp]

If you want democracy you got to leave the EU. That's the simple fact, if you think trade is more important than freedom well go ahead and become the EU's lapdog.

[Helix345]

I hate to break it to you, but no matter what country you are, you aren't a democracy. Every modern country that considers itself free is a republic, and while I don't understand all the implications of being in the EU, I doubt that they took your representatives away.

[Caesars_Legion]

Right, had an opportunity to read through all of it now.

1. Leave Campaign Arguments:

A) The EU is Undemocratic. False. The European Union is not Undemocratic, for one it has the European Parliament which every member state elects to. A country like Croatia arguing it is Undemocratic makes sense, as it has far fewer representatives than Germany, France, and the UK. The UK has the third highest number of MEP's in the EU, affording over 10% of the vote in the parliament. 10% to one country out of 27 states is a rather in our favour is it not? Furthermore, the argument that the European Commission is unelected is also garbage. They are indirectly elected through the Parliament we do elect, much like the way the Electoral College functions in the US when choosing a President.
B) We can still trade within the Single Market like Switzerland or Norway. True, but contradictory. The bulk of the premise of the Vote Leave argument was "We must control Immigration" (Take a look at Mr. Farage's lovely billboard), whilst also saying that we could remain in the single market. If we were to remain within the Single Market, it is a simple truth that we must sign up to the free movements of people (Like Norway and Switzerland), whilst simultaneously losing our representation, say, and influence of EU legislation. Therefore it doesn't make sense to leave then sign up the single market outside of the legislature.
C) We can trade with nations outside the European Union! Look at all these unexploited markets!. True, but a logistical nightmare. The UK's Civil Service has suffered massive cutbacks and redundancies over the past 6 years thanks to Conservative Austerity. To negotiate a trade deal (Which usually take anywhere between 2-10 years) with upwards of 20+ countries simultaneously is logistically impossible given the current state of the Civil Service. Trade won't suddenly appear "Oh it'll be okay in a few years". I'd recommend swapping out years for decades.
D) Money to the NHS (And everything else). If you genuinely believed that argument after 6 years of sustained cuts, just leave.
E) Turkey joining the EU. Maybe, not for at least another Decade.

2. Remain campaign arguments.

A) Economic Uncertainty. True. Look at the current state of the Pound Sterling.
B) Emergency Budgetary Cuts if we leave. False. Look at the current chancellor.
C) Wonderful free trade if we stay. True. Though that premise has kind of gone now.

3. My opinion.

When the campaign started, I was on the fence, being blown by a gentle breeze onto the side of Brexit. Then the arguments from the Leave campaigns began, and the wind suddenly and violently changed into the other direction. The Leave campaign offered no structured plan for what would occur after Brexit should it occur. Their promises were lies, and deceit, and they fiddled with statistics to make things look worse than they are. I didn't like the arguments presented by the Remain campaign, I thought they too were awful. It was Fear vs Fear, which could win out? The European Union has fundamental flaws in its structure, but these fundamental flaws would be resolved, and Britain could have been part of the push to resolve those flaws. I personally thought the benefits of the European Union outweighed the flaws, but each to their own.