Thrawn's Revenge
Off Topic => The Lounge => Topic started by: tlmiller on June 27, 2016, 02:22:08 PM
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The Brexit? Anyone here care about it?
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Maybe...
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I don't being a UK citizen i can't think of a worse topic i voted leave i now all the remain bunch are whining over it.
All i can say is STOP BLOODY WHINING WERE A F****** DEMOCRACY ONE SIDE WINS ALL THE OTHERS LOSE.
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Two problems with this mentality:
1, they are not whining, they are letting their voice heard and you can't say them to stop, because you are a democracy, since they are free men and women. They can do whatever they want.
2, you don't see the effect of what you just did. You just saw the migrants and said no thanks and left before thinking it trough on an economical and political side.
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Let's not get into claiming to know what someone else is thinking, shall we?
As for Brexit, as an American I'm concerned. Article 50 hasn't even been invoked yet, and just the referendum itself was enough to throw the market into a spin and give the pound, well, a pounding. I don't like financial chaos, and I don't like it when nationalism with a racial tinge is the apparent primary motivator of a populist movement. I do expect the markets to stabilize soon, but I am not looking forward to seeing what they do while the UK and EU hammer out their new relationship and trade deals. I'm concerned regarding Scotland and Northern Ireland, as both seemed to strongly support remaining - Scotland came close to voting to leave the UK just two years ago and supported remaining in the EU by a much larger margin and already there is talk of another independence vote, and leaving the EU may neutralize parts of the Good Friday Agreement regarding Northern Ireland, potentially causing fighting to flare back up there.
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If Northern Ireland and Scotland want to go they can go a mean it's not like the British doesn't know about just leaving their territory to fend for itself.
But i also want to point out that the people who voted remain are not looking at the bigger picture
A. Nothing is going to happen for 2 - 4 years
B. We will get trading with other country's less with people in the EU but more with country's outside the EU.
C. We are not keeping our borders completely shut because we left the EU we've only made it harder to get in, also just because of will be harder to get in doesn't mean no one will come just look at USA and Australia.
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Nothing is going to happen? Your currency has already dropped to a 30-year low - in a single day. Unless you expect all of this to rebound shortly, an expectation not shared by any economists I've read over the last few days (some expect it to fall further), this is hardly nothing.
Edit: You also have about 3 million non-British EU citizens living in the UK, and 1.3 million non-EU Brits living in the EU, all of whose plans for the future have been thrown into chaos because they have no idea what to expect regarding revised immigration and residency laws. No one in the Leave campaign can guarantee anything to these people right now, nor can they for the foreseeable future. Again, this is hardly nothing. That is hasn't negatively affected you directly yet doesn't mean it is having no impacts.
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What i mean from nothing will happen for 2 -4 years is that we won't leave the EU till then.
Yes the Pound has hit an all time low but it will recover once things settle down.
For the Non-british in the country and the British outside the country yes there is nothing in place to ensure their future yet, We will organize something but just not yet it's not even been a week since the referendum just give it time, let the dust settle and once the goverment sort themselves out something will be in place.
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Your vague assurances are not very reassuring.
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Your vague assurances are not very reassuring.
Not at all.
And my personal friend lives in the UK, now fearing to lose his job, not to mention his girlfriend is there with him, so her job is at risk too. if they both lose their job, their lives will be ruined. Also, Mat you realize that now you British people have to do jobs like being bartenders, waitresses, and clean rooms in the hotels. Since British people demand these services, but would not do them since they consider them to be humiliating. And don't tell me you don't, I know exactly since my mother worked in a Hotel as a room cleaner for 20 years, and she herself said that the English people all looked at her like a garbage, even the messiest Chinese did not looked down on her.
You also said you will get more trade from outside EU. Well, maybe you will have new roads, but clearly not as many as in the EU, since your economy seems to be quite near to collapse at the moment.
You should realize that you are not that great empire you were once and you can't take on the world on your own anymore.
Look, I know you voted on leaving for a reason, but you might not have thought things though quite enough. Nor did more than half of your countrymen and women. life is not that easy that if we won't trade with EU we will trade with others. Others will now see that the UK lost a whole bunch of credibility. They see that you left your trading partners hanging in the air. Who wants to trade with someone like that? Nobody likes the idea that one day his trading partner just lets him there.
Reasons and consequences. UK only saw the reasons, but did not thought about the consequences.
And to quote a British living in the EU(I tell no name for a reason): "i want the world to basically kick our shit into the gutter while i laugh from the safe confines of my ******* home"
"i'll tell you what we are; arrogant"
a lot of people think that we can just relive the glory days of our empire and stand on our own against europe, and that nothing will happen to us because we're so big and powerful
we stood alone during WWII, we'll get through this just as we did back then"
to that I wrote:
"but you did not stand alone in WW II. without american supply convoys and troops you would have lost"
To that he said:
"yeah but a lot of us like to think that we did stand alone until 1944"
After a while talking about something else we returned to the subject and these were next:
"to leave the EU is also committing economic suicide
over the past 24 hours we're not #5 biggest economy anymore
we're now at #7"
And this went on and on...
But yeah, don't believe us. You are British, not Europeans. But count on that if the Scottish and Northern Irish will secede, since Scottish wants to stay in EU, then your economy will drop even further and you will have even more borders to defend. Also losing Northern Ireland would mean you lose control over the Northern Channel, which rips you away from further taxes, infrastructure and population, making England lose even more credibility. And you are lucky that Wales has no intention of separation because that would be the last nail in your coffin.
Just saying.
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Maybe your right, maybe both me and all the other leave voters where short minded it's certainly a possibility but i do not believe it will be so serious that we will have such a large economic crisis.
Yes The UK isn't as big as it used to be but we are still a place where a lot of people have been / want to be. I find it highly unlikely that when we actually leave the EU that no one will want to come to our country for whatever they plan to do.
Presides we don't know what will happen all we can do is wait, There is little we can do at this moment in time.
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My main issue with the leave vote is that it seems to have been without any real plans attached to it, so it meant many different things to different people. For some it was meant to give the EU a wake up call, a bit of impetus to reform, but it wasn't really a desire to separate. For some it was a nationalist vote to cut down on Muslim immigrants, or a demand for economic sovereignty. For others, it was yet other reasons. The problem is that a momentous decision was made to do something, but with no prescription for how to go about doing it, and so now all these factions will get to argue with each other first to decide what they want, and then they'll have to argue with the EU as to what it will grant - we are talking months at least, if not years, of economic and personal insecurity for millions of people while all these details are hammered out.
I am not a fan of simple yes/no referendums on complex topics, and this kind of uncertainty is why. In the USA, people who vote to deport millions of illegals are usually doing the same thing - ignoring the details and the chaos such a decision will cause purely by virtue of it being made, regardless of how it is implemented.
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I certainly hope that your country will somehow stabilize, because if not it will be horrible for the people living there. I certainly wish the best for you, despite everything.
I know what it is like when one's country was once at the top of the world and still wants to be, we just realized the sad truth that we can't.
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Are we talking about the brexit vote that essentially said "**** you" to all the young people in Britain?
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How did it say that they could vote on it.
In fact most 18 - 24 year olds in the country didn't vote.
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To start with, a lot of British universities are given funding from the EU, not to mention that students who are part of the EU have easy access to education in many different EU countries. Also, the young people are the ones who will feel the repercussions of separating from the world's largest economy.
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The generation gap was interesting - it reminded me somewhat of the Democratic primary in the US this year, with Bernie having the young, Hillary the old. It's always a bit strange to see a decision made based on the will of those who will have to live with its consequences the least amount of time, but that's what happens when a demographic doesn't turnout very well.
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Personally, I didn't think that Bernie's policies were realistic
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They weren't. Personally, I supported him not because I thought any of his proposals would pass, but because I wanted someone who would help pull the Overton window of American politics away from its current right-wing infestation, someone whose starting point in negotiations wasn't already corporatist. I don't think Clinton will be a bad President, but she historically has been a neo-liberal corporatist on economic issues.
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Right wing everywhere. even here in hungary. What is going on here?
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Missed the early part of this thread due to being on holiday in Scotland, but have been following the laughable (and lamentable) collapse in leadership of both or major parties and the infighting and backtracking from the principal Leave politicians. The main thing I want to know is when someone is going to demand Farage disband UKIP since now we've voted to leave the EU it's raison d'être has evaporated!
But i also want to point out that the people who voted remain are not looking at the bigger picture
A. Nothing is going to happen for 2 - 4 years
That's an unknown but unlikely to be 4 years. The EU won't negotiate terms until we invoke Article 50 and once we do we've only got two years to negotiate our exit (I think it's highly unlikely that all 27 remaining EU countries would agree to an extension of the negotiation period). Although we can choose when to invoke Article 50 there are quite strong clamours for it to be sooner rather than later, both from European neighbours and from members of the Leave team (including Farage), and prolonging the uncertainty is hardly in our best interests anyway.
B. We will get trading with other country's less with people in the EU but more with country's outside the EU.
We won't "get" trading with other countries just because we leave the EU. We already trade with those countries and there is no reason to believe that leaving the EU will increase our trade with ROW. In fact, leaving the EU will initially probably result in a reduction in trade with parts of ROW because the moment we complete our EU exit we lose access to all of the existing trade agreements which we currently benefit from as part of the EU - agreements which we are unlikely to be able to negotiate replacements for before exit (particularly since our civil service has been pared down in that area for decades and now lacks severely both in numbers and experience).
Also approximately 80% of our economy is in services, which generally have much higher non-tariff barriers to trade than goods. Even within the EU the single market has only been partially opened up in the services industry (with Britain a leading proponent towards completion). Leaving the EU means growth in that huge portion of our economy is likely to be severely stymied.
C. We are not keeping our borders completely shut because we left the EU we've only made it harder to get in, also just because of will be harder to get in doesn't mean no one will come just look at USA and Australia.
What really undermines the entire immigration argument for Leave is that, even with the existing rules, the number of non-EU migrants last year (2015) alone was almost twice the governments overall target for net migration. If the government can't meet it's ultimate goal even for the element of migration it already has control over why would anyone be deluded enough to believe that leaving the EU will make any difference?
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Slornie sees the bigger picture. Thank you
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I'll post a video on this subject later today.
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I will need to read through all of this, which I won't be able to do at the moment. In the mean time, I will just leave this youtube link here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XYBIUGJvzs
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Can't watch, can't stand anime. ;)
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I watched it, and it was funny.
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BTW: Why do I have the feeling that the politicians "supported" to quit the EU in Britain only wanted to earn the vote of the big chunk who wanted to quit? I think they never realized they would really actually quit.
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If you want democracy you got to leave the EU. That's the simple fact, if you think trade is more important than freedom well go ahead and become the EU's lapdog.
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I hate to break it to you, but no matter what country you are, you aren't a democracy. Every modern country that considers itself free is a republic, and while I don't understand all the implications of being in the EU, I doubt that they took your representatives away.
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Right, had an opportunity to read through all of it now. :)
1. Leave Campaign Arguments:
A) The EU is Undemocratic. False. The European Union is not Undemocratic, for one it has the European Parliament which every member state elects to. A country like Croatia arguing it is Undemocratic makes sense, as it has far fewer representatives than Germany, France, and the UK. The UK has the third highest number of MEP's in the EU, affording over 10% of the vote in the parliament. 10% to one country out of 27 states is a rather in our favour is it not? Furthermore, the argument that the European Commission is unelected is also garbage. They are indirectly elected through the Parliament we do elect, much like the way the Electoral College functions in the US when choosing a President.
B) We can still trade within the Single Market like Switzerland or Norway. True, but contradictory. The bulk of the premise of the Vote Leave argument was "We must control Immigration" (Take a look at Mr. Farage's lovely billboard), whilst also saying that we could remain in the single market. If we were to remain within the Single Market, it is a simple truth that we must sign up to the free movements of people (Like Norway and Switzerland), whilst simultaneously losing our representation, say, and influence of EU legislation. Therefore it doesn't make sense to leave then sign up the single market outside of the legislature.
C) We can trade with nations outside the European Union! Look at all these unexploited markets!. True, but a logistical nightmare. The UK's Civil Service has suffered massive cutbacks and redundancies over the past 6 years thanks to Conservative Austerity. To negotiate a trade deal (Which usually take anywhere between 2-10 years) with upwards of 20+ countries simultaneously is logistically impossible given the current state of the Civil Service. Trade won't suddenly appear "Oh it'll be okay in a few years". I'd recommend swapping out years for decades.
D) Money to the NHS (And everything else). If you genuinely believed that argument after 6 years of sustained cuts, just leave.
E) Turkey joining the EU. Maybe, not for at least another Decade.
2. Remain campaign arguments.
A) Economic Uncertainty. True. Look at the current state of the Pound Sterling.
B) Emergency Budgetary Cuts if we leave. False. Look at the current chancellor.
C) Wonderful free trade if we stay. True. Though that premise has kind of gone now.
3. My opinion.
When the campaign started, I was on the fence, being blown by a gentle breeze onto the side of Brexit. Then the arguments from the Leave campaigns began, and the wind suddenly and violently changed into the other direction. The Leave campaign offered no structured plan for what would occur after Brexit should it occur. Their promises were lies, and deceit, and they fiddled with statistics to make things look worse than they are. I didn't like the arguments presented by the Remain campaign, I thought they too were awful. It was Fear vs Fear, which could win out? The European Union has fundamental flaws in its structure, but these fundamental flaws would be resolved, and Britain could have been part of the push to resolve those flaws. I personally thought the benefits of the European Union outweighed the flaws, but each to their own.